Probabilistic race outcomes

Stop guessing your pace. Simulate it.

Monte Miles runs thousands of race simulations using your training, fatigue, and conditions to show your true outcome range.

Probability

See your chance of hitting goal in seconds, not spreadsheets.

Finish range

Understand the most likely outcome window before race day.

Pace adjustment

Compare your goal pace against weather, fatigue, and training load.

No signup needed to see a first result. Run the simulator first, then decide whether you want a plan, weekly tracking, or race-day support.

What the payoff looks like

A first result should feel like a real answer.

Monte Miles is built around the outcome screen: your odds, your likely finish range, your realistic pace, and the next best move if you want to improve the result.

Chance to hit goal

38%

Most likely finish

3:28:22

Expected range

3:20 to 3:41

Finish-time distribution
Likely finish spread
Goal pace

The result makes one thing clear fast: what is likely, what is aggressive, and what to tune next.

Quick Forecast
Get a fast race outcome estimate without sign-up. Open the simulator when you are ready, enter a few details, and see your first result in under a minute.

One click to open it, then three inputs are enough for a first answer.

Race Outcome Simulator

We simulate thousands of race scenarios under different conditions to show what is likely, not just what is possible.

Training that feeds the simulator

Training plans, race-day conditions, fatigue, and recent training all feed the simulator.

Weekly habit loop

Check your probability each week to see whether readiness is improving or fading.

How Monte Miles compares

Typical apps stop at a training plan or a basic pace prediction. Monte Miles shows the full outcome range.

FeatureTypical running appsMonte Miles
Training plansYesYes
Pace predictionBasicProbabilistic
Weather impactNoYes
Outcome rangesNoYes
Why runners come back

One result becomes a weekly habit.

Monte Miles is built to give a runner a clear answer fast, then keep getting more useful as training, fatigue, and race day conditions change.

It feels less like a dashboard and more like a sharp conversation with a coach who wants the next race to go better.

Fast first answer

See a real probability quickly, before signup gets in the way.

Weekly momentum

Come back each week and watch the odds move with your training.

Race-day clarity

Get pacing guidance, likely fade points, and a finish range you can trust.

One athlete brain

Plan, simulator, coach, and Strava all speak from the same profile.

Monte Miles | Race Outcome Simulator for Runners